RESUMO
Objetivo El trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la dinámica del comportamiento de la COVID-19 en el Perú, estimar y evaluar el impacto de la política pública de supresión (cuarentena). Métodos El modelo epidemiológico SIR y la estimación con el método de Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO). Resultados Se encontró que el número básico de propagación (Ro) cayó de 6,0 a 3,2 habiéndose reducido en 54% por efecto de la estrategia de supresión, y dos meses después cayó a 1,7. Sin embargo, sigue siendo alto y evidencia que aún continúa en expansión el nivel de infectados, con los efectos sociales y económicos adversos que esta medida implica. Conclusión La COVID-19 es una enfermedad que crece exponencialmente, por lo cual, la política de salud basada en la estrategia de supresión ha permitido aplanar la curva de contagio, evitando el colapso del Sistema de Salud. Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). Methods The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy;and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected continues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. Conclusion COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). METHODS: The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. RESULTS: It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy; and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected continues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Peru/epidemiologia , Política Pública , Política de Saúde , Saúde PúblicaRESUMO
Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). Methods The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy; and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected con-tinues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. Conclusion: COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.
RESUMO
RESUMEN Objetivo El trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la dinámica del comportamiento de la COVID-19 en el Perú, estimar y evaluar el impacto de la política pública de supresión (cuarentena). Métodos El modelo epidemiológico SIR y la estimación con el método de Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (MCO). Resultados Se encontró que el número básico de propagación (Ro) cayó de 6,0 a 3,2 habiéndose reducido en 54% por efecto de la estrategia de supresión, y dos meses después cayó a 1,7. Sin embargo, sigue siendo alto y evidencia que aún continúa en expansión el nivel de infectados, con los efectos sociales y económicos adversos que esta medida implica. Conclusión La COVID-19 es una enfermedad que crece exponencialmente, por lo cual, la política de salud basada en la estrategia de supresión ha permitido aplanar la curva de contagio, evitando el colapso del Sistema de Salud.(AU) ABSTRACT Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). Methods The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy;and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected continues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. Conclusion: COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.(AU)
RESUMO
ABSTRACT Objective The objective of the study is to analyze the behavior dynamics of COVID-19 in Peru, estimate and evaluate the impact of the suppression public policy (quarantine). Methods The SIR epidemiological model and the estimation with the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. Results It was found that the basic number of propagation (Ro) fell from 6,0 to 3,2 having been reduced by 54% due to the suppression strategy;and two months later it falls to 1,7. However, it remains high and evidence that the level of those infected continues to expand with its adverse social and economic effects. Conclusion: COVID-19 is a disease that grows exponentially, and that the health policy based on the suppression strategy has allowed to flatten the contagion curve, thus avoiding the collapse of the Health System.